A Trend Analysis For The Next 50 Years

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As a Registered Investment Advisor, people keep asking me what the future holds — as if I have a secret hotline to Nostradamus. Truth is, I tossed the crystal ball decades ago (although I used it as a bowling ball for a while) and stuck with defensive risk management and momentum trend following instead. Still, here I am, sticking my neck out to guess what Montana might look like in 50 years — assuming the Good Lord Jesus hasn’t punched our ticket before then. Buckle up; this could get weird.

1) Population

We won’t turn into California — thank goodness— but expect slow, steady growth. Bozeman, Missoula, Billings, Flathead County will keep sucking up newcomers like a Shop-Vac, while some eastern counties will still be holding potlucks with the same 12 people. Lots more retirees (some will call it “God’s waiting room with elk”). Young folks will keep fleeing for jobs, unless we invent an economy that isn’t just tourism, cattle, and McDonalds “help wanted” signs.

2) Economy

Ag, mining, and timber will still be here, but more as heritage brands than job engines. Services, health care, outdoor tourism, and remote internet artificial AI aided technology  will creep in. Expect guys wearing  Patagonia outdoor vests explaining blockchain over your beer. Prices will swing with commodity markets, so “boom and bust” is still the house special.

3) Climate

Possibly smokier from man-made fires — but still doing better than what radical environmentalist advocates say, which is  “Montana is just Arizona with better fishing.” Agriculture will adapt or die, ski seasons will attract more people, and tourists will keep showing up in flip-flops asking where Yellowstone is and getting gored by bison while taking selfies.

4) Society & Culture

Housing prices will keep rocketing in the pretty parts, forcing locals to commute from towns you can barely find on a map. You’ll have ranchers, retirees, remote tech bros, Indigenous communities, and seasonal workers all fighting over water, zoning, and what counts as “progress.” Missoula and Bozeman will feel like liberal outposts rivalling San Francisco, while much of the rest of the state wonders if they’ve been invaded.

5) Politics

Republicans will probably run the show statewide for decades, but expect some blue dots in college towns, the reservations  and ski valleys. Big fights will revolve around land, water, schools, and whether the state should be “open for business” or “closed to Californians.” Campaign ads will still be awful, just on your VR headset instead of TV.

Three scenarios:

Most likely: Moderate growth, more smoke, more arguments, Republicans in charge, and a constant fight between growth boosters and folks who miss the old days.

Optimistic: We invest in water storage, housing, technology and high-speed internet; people get good jobs without leaving; wildfire season is manageable.

Pessimistic: Multi-year drought, towns hollow out, fires eat the forest, housing collapses into a playground for rich outsiders, and a now Democrat  legislature tries to fix it with a nonbinding resolution and a pancake breakfast, and an added 29% sales tax. Bottom line: Montana will still be beautiful and stubborn, but a lot more crowded, with about twice our present population, expensive, and split politically between urban and rural. Whether that’s “progress” or “ruin” depends on who’s telling the story — and if they moved here before or after you did!

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