by Montana Citizen

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, from April 2010 to April 2020 the population of Montana grew from 989,415 to 1,084,225, a compound annual growth rate of 1.79%. Based on this growth rate, the Montana population would have grown by 7,045 people over the period from July to the week after the election in the chart below.

As the chart shows, the growth in Active voters from May through June roughly follows the expected population growth rate. Then something happens! Instead of the expected increase in Active voters of about 3,500, during the following 6 months, roughly half the population growth, the increase in Active voters was an astounding 88,614 voters, 25 times higher than expected! What’s going on?

For one thing, the total growth in registered voters was only 43,290, less than half the increase in Active voters. How can that be? As the chart shows, the increase in Active voters was mirrored by a decrease in the number of Inactive voters. During this 6-month period, roughly 46,000 voters had their status changed from Inactive to Active. This accounts for roughly half of the increase in Active voters.

MCA 13-2-220 defines the conditions under which a voter’s status is changed from Active to Inactive. Generally, this happens after a voter doesn’t vote and doesn’t respond to confirmation letters. A voter is returned to Active status simply by the process of voting. The chart shows this did happen (a part of the large jump the week of the election) and this explains about 1/3, 15,000, of the changes from Inactive to Active.

The other 2/3, more than 30,000 status changes took place in the 6-month period leading up to the election. The only other way for a voter’s status to be changed back to Active is for the voter to initiate this in writing. 1 in every 25 registered voters did this? Seems unlikely, but possible, I guess.

What about the other half of the increase in Active voters, the other 43,000 voters? Given the opportunity to register when you apply for a driver’s license, most newcomers to Montana should have been gradually added to the voter rolls over time. Of course, election judges in many large counties clearly remember the buses rolling up on election day, unloading hundreds of people, mostly young, who registered to vote that day. That is also a huge contributor to the big jump in Active voters during the week of the election. However, to achieve what is shown in the chart, with active voters running just over 50% of the population (56% the year of the 2020 census), it would mean that the Montana population would have needed to grow since the 2022 election by nearly double the historical rate, and that ALL of these new voters would need to have delayed registering to vote until the 6-months period prior to the 2024 general election. And, of course, none of them could have registered earlier, so they could be able to vote in the 2024 primary.

This scenario seems implausible! So, what was going on in the 6-month period leading up to the 2024 general election? Hmmm?

Strange happenings in Montana!