"The good war, which attains its complete objective, is the one involving deception, not confrontation, for confrontation involves danger, while deception achieves victory without risk." Ibn al-Munayyr
In September 1993, I stood on the front lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., as Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo Accords. This was one more attempt to bring peace to the Middle East and for Bill Clinton to put a feather in his cap. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) renounced terrorism and Israel's right to live in peace. It didn’t last; treaties attempting to settle the differences between Israel and terrorist groups never do. One of the reasons is that treaties are only a form of deception used to gain an advantage over an enemy. Arafat used the Oslo Accords as a means of deceiving Israel and Washington, D.C.
It looks like Hamas’ leadership is doing the same today.
The cease-fire deal in Gaza is a terrible deal for Israel because it unravels everything the Israelis fought for over the last fifteen months.
The deal is laid out in three phases.
Phase I (42 Days)
Israel releases 100 prisoners serving life sentences and 1,000 others not involved in the October 7 attacks. (30 prisoners released per civilian hostage and 50 for each female Soldier)
Hamas releases 33 hostages in return. (Female civilians and Soldiers, children, civilians over 50)
Israel pulls back to previous Gaza borders, except for the Philadelphi corridor.
Gazans move back to what’s left of Gaza if they choose, and humanitarian aid flows.
Phase II (42 Days)
Declaration of an end to the war.
Israel withdraws remaining forces.
More hostages are exchanged for prisoners.
Phase III
Bodies of hostages exchanged for bodies of terrorist fighters.
Reconstruction plan for Gaza implemented. Again, who is paying?
Gaza border crossing reopened.
Why this is a bad deal.
The prisoners are jihadists and will act that way when released.
The Gaza Strip remains in the hands of Hamas and is rebuilt, providing a home for the newly released terrorists. Who is paying for this rebuild?
Hamas does not pay the ultimate price for its crimes against humanity and is allowed to continue.
This entire deal emboldens terrorists and the nations that support them rather than deter them.
Israel's work to eliminate Hamas and its support, reduce Hezbollah, and weaken Iran will be undone.
It ignores the fact that deceit is a way of war in the Middle East and is accepted under Islamic Shariah law. When Arafat returned to the Middle East after the Oslo Accords, he knew the West and Israel fell for a ruse. There are many Muslims who would dispute this statement, but terrorist groups embrace deception via treaty as the conduct of regular business. The reason is that the periods embraced in treaties always give them time to rebuild and plan for more operations in the future while the West ties its own hands.
Six weeks is a long time and would allow Hamas the chance to rest and refit.
Humanitarian supplies are always used to cover the movement of weapons and fighters.
Hamas broke cease-fire deals in 2003, 2007, 2008, 2014, and 2024. This deal is unlikely to last either, but it does risk fracturing the Netanyahu administration.
This protects the leadership of Hamas in Qatar, who’ve never paid any price for starting this war.
Qatar continued its friendship with Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is tied closely to the Qatari government and profited from business dealings with them. This could tie Witkoff closer to Qatar than to Trump and the United States.
The Houthis did not pay a heavy price.
Seeking Silver Linings
Hostages reunited with their families.
Netanyahu has been clear that the fighting will continue if Hamas violates the terms.
Hamas started the war; they are also in charge of their fate while solely responsible for their likely treaty violations to come.
Israel could retain its reputation as a good-faith ally. At the same time, Hamas could prove, once again, that it is only a bloodthirsty terrorist group seeking the eradication of Israel and, by violating any treaty, would signal its final destruction. This would be an opportunity for Israel to maintain complete control over Gaza and pursue the possibility of the Ben Gurion Canal as an alternative to the Suez Canal.
Biden said he’s “deeply satisfied” with this agreement, continuing his pattern of halfway support to Israel and emboldening Israel’s enemies at the same time. What will come with the Trump administration set to take over on Monday, January 20th? Time to keep moving with the Abraham Accords.
No matter what happens, Sunday is just around the corner, and we will soon know which direction this cease-fire will take.
Lt Col (ret), US Army, Darin Gaub (@DLGaub) is a senior geopolitical and military strategist, former Blackhawk helicopter pilot and Battalion Commander, executive leadership coach, ordained Bible minister, and serves on the boards of multiple volunteer national and state-level organizations. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components. He can be found on Rumble and Substack.
