While pictures out of Syria show people celebrating the removal of Assad, we'll provide our readers with some key points about the factions, possible strategic consequences, and a few words of caution.
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Major Factions:
1. SIG/SNA: The Syrian Interim Government (Political Wing) and the Syrian National Army (Military Wing) represent Turkish interests in Syria. They are armed, funded, and commanded by the Turkish Armed Forces. The SNA controls territory in the north of Idlib on the border with Turkey and a zone inside of Rojava. The SNA represents the Turkish military inside of Syria and will be the most likely group to clash with the SDF (#4) due to Erdogan’s deep hatred of the Kurds.
2. SSG/HTS: The Syrian Salvation Government (Political Wing) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Military Wing) represent the Islamist element inside Syria. Headed by the charismatic Abu Muhamad al-Julani, HTS is responsible for most of the gains against the Assad regime and controls most of Idlib, including Aleppo, the cities of Hams, Homs, and the entire coastal region including Latakia and Tartus. HTS is one of the more effective fighting forces inside Syria and now controls most of the major cities and ports. HTS is comparable to ISIS or al Qaeda. The two locations of Latakia and Tartus are critical locations for Russia's military operations.
3. SFA: The Syrian Free Army is an American-backed force that originally operated out of the al-Tanf military base on the Syrian-Jordanian border. The SFA seized the western parts of the Syrian desert from Assad and ISIS to include Palmyra, and eventually made it to Damascus. Currently, the SFA hold territory in the Syrian Desert and the northern part of Damascus. However, they are dependent on the U.S. for logistical and air support. The SFA is generally a secular Sunni organization.
4. Rojava/SDF: The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, otherwise known as Rojava, and their armed wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces, represent the Kurdish interests in Syria. Along with their Iraqi Kurdish counterparts, the SDF proved to be the most reliable and effective fighters against ISIS and enjoy a decent degree of US air and logistical support. The SDF controls the eastern part of the Syrian Desert including the Iraqi border, Dier Ez-Zor, and the entire northeastern corner of Syria (the Kurdish-inhabited areas). The SDF are the best-trained and motivated fighters in Syria, as well as the most likely group to react positively to Israeli and Western engagement.
5. SOR: The Southern Operations Room is a new merger of a coalition of Sunni and Druze groups in the southern part of Syria. This group is based in the Daraa and Quneitra areas and controls those provinces, the land border with Israel, and the southern part of Damascus. The SOR represents many minority groups in Syria, like the Druze, and has a history of generally positive relations with Israel through the IDF’s “Good Neighbor” operation from 2016-2018. This is the group that Israel could interact with the most.
Possible Strategic Consequences
1. The fall of the Assad regime means Iran and Russia have lost their grip on what was mostly a vassal state. Iran uses Syria to help move arms and fighters into Lebanon to support Hezbollah. Iran also effectively lost Hamas and Hezbollah as a result of its inability to deter Israel. Russia sought to prevent a growing American influence in the region. It is likely Russia and Iran will not be able to return to Syria in a consequential manner that allows them to influence Syria's future.
2. Assad was a despot but predictable. In this situation, the devil we know could be better than the devil we don't. The current situation in Syria is likely to lead to Syria becoming a haven for terrorism, much like Afghanistan was pre-9/11 and is returning to now. This time, the Islamists are supported by Turkey, which also happens to be a NATO member. Turkey is closer to Russia than it is to NATO. Therefore, this resurgence of violence in Syria could create a strategic dilemma for the NATO alliance if Turkey stays close to Russia and facilitates terrorism in Syria. These relationships could have impacts concerning access to the Black Sea and Russia's fleet in Sevastopol.
3. Iran losing control of Syria is not a surprise given their two failed attacks on Israel combined with effectively losing Hezbollah and Hamas as effective proxy forces. This will continue to weaken Iran's regime and could open an opportunity for the people of Iran to remove them. It could also make the regime more prone to lash out, and if they are closer to nuclear capability than our current intelligence estimates, the nuclear threat would grow.
4. Israel's treaty alliance with the Assad regime is gone, and this is what provided a level of stability to the Golan Heights. With the growing threat of extreme Islamism under HTS, Israel moved into the region to establish a buffer between Israel and Syria. If HTS or other groups don't make a move to the southwest that threatens Israel, this could be as far as Israel goes on the ground. Meanwhile, Israel and the U.S. are striking targets in Syria ostensibly to destroy chemical and other munitions sites. This is arguably a smart move to prevent those weapons from going into the hands of terrorists, but it poses the risk of another expansion of the conflict throughout the Middle East. Historically, the breakup of strong authoritarian regimes is immediately followed by a time of significant risk where the new reality is more dangerous than the former. Israel appears to be getting ahead of that potential by systematically destroying critical elements of the Syrian military.
5. Reports of a fire at the immigration and passport center in Damascus have also caused some nations (Austria, Germany, Britain, France, Greece, Denmark, and Norway) to cease all asylum processes out of Syria.
To capture all possible strategic consequences of what is happening in Syria is impossible in a short article. This primer was written to analyze this developing situation and to provide key points people can use to start their own analysis.
What is happening in Syria does not look like a move to greater freedom but to greater danger.
